Welcome to Sagent’s weekly homeowner hardship briefing where we analyze the latest market data, including the Mortgage Bankers Association’s forbearance data, to offer key takeaways for servicers.
Here’s what’s new this week:
1. Forbearance Volume Stalls as New Requests & Re-entries Rise
Per the MBA’s latest forbearance data through August 22, forbearance volume remains unchanged week-over-week, coming in at 3.25% of all mortgages. This works out to roughly 1.6M borrowers still in forbearance.
2. Forbearance Exits and Re-entries Climbing
The slowdown in pace is consistent with trends we have seen in recent weeks, with new requests and re-entries balancing out any significant increases in forbearance exit numbers. However, this is still a bit concerning and something we want to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
3. 80% of Borrowers Exiting Forbearance in an Orderly Fashion
On a positive note, some 80% of borrowers are exiting in an orderly fashion: loan deferral / partial claims account for 28.3% of exits, exits where the borrower remained current throughout forbearance account for 22.5%, reinstatement exits accounted for 13.1%, loan mod / trial payment exits make up 11.2%, and exits via refi/paid off make up 7.5%. The remaining ~16% are exiting without a plan in place.
We suspect these borrowers will re-engage in the coming months, and certainly after January 1, when foreclosures can resume.
The Bottom Line
This week marks a plateau in forbearance volume, as new requests and forbearance re-entries balanced out the increase in borrowers exiting forbearance. With August behind us, though, we begin a critical period for servicers are borrowers begin their transition out of forbearance and into home retention.
As Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist explains, “We expect a sharp increase in forbearance exits over the next month as many borrowers reach the 18-month mark and see their forbearance plans end. For those borrowers who have exited in August, the majority either enter deferral plans or obtain modifications.” With the CFPB watching and as forbearance exits continue to tick upwards, servicers have to
As always, Sagent’s 3 core performing, non-performing, and consumer platforms have kept servicers in front of all policy and regulatory changes during this recovery phase. I’m on standby to answer your policy questions and talk about how to help you care for borrowers during this critical phase.